Toronto Photography Meetup Group

I don't see the manufacturers getting rid of crop sensors in the foreseeable future .. that's my prediction.

selling 100 full frame cameras versus 10,000 crop cameras... hmmm, i highly doubt it'll be gone too..

I think more sub-Full Frame sensors will come out. From a cost perspective it makes sense, and also from a usability perspective also (lighter, more reach with lenses).

Plus, image quality on smaller sensors will likely be increased as the technology improves.

Looks like I just convinced myself to get a Nikon 1

10 yrs ago, most of us can't even afford DX DSLR, let alone FX (actually, no FX digital until 2002 according to wiki).. who know's what is available in next 10 yrs? Maybe medium or larger format will be entry level camera!

To make more money.. they want you to buy new bodies/glasses, not re-using old stuffs.

5 years ago Nikon said they weren't going to full frame and iphone and 4/3 cameras were a gleam in Olympus marketing eye. Moore's law keeps on marching forward so talk to me in 5 years

i still can't afford FX, I am doomed to live with reality

<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/metrix_feet/6171129412/" title="John T. Davis by Metrix X, on Flickr"><img src="http://farm7.static.flickr.com/6156/6171129412_5ba2e97e8f_o.jpg" width="688" height="840" alt="John T. Davis"></a>
80 meg back

<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/metrix_feet/6171129204/" title="John T. Davis by Metrix X, on Flickr"><img src="http://farm7.static.flickr.com/6176/6171129204_71cbe75e02_o.jpg" width="738" height="840" alt="John T. Davis"></a>
60 meg back

What am I looking at? I'm just a simple rube.

I'm sure even a simple rube can read an exif file on flickr.

too much work. back to fishing I go.

Hello Ryan,
What do u base this statement on ..
Apart from full frame can do a crop system job
Thank you

I base on normal trends and new sensor designs that are coming up.

When Canon or Nikon first put a high grade video on a still camera they didn't do it by making 2 sensors they did it by making a re-configurable sensor. This sounds simple but it wasn't the technology had to be scaled up from the small P&S cameras to a full frame (FF) camera. Now that they have the technology they can expand it to reconfigure sensors to become crop factors and take more photos per second for sports use or when you need a digital zoom lets say for birding. You can also join pixels together for lower noise and higher ISO.

Next problem is maximum usable number of pixels without lose of resolution due to diffraction limit is around 30 Megapixels for full frame and 20 Mp for 1.5 crop factor. There ain't no more at least not with conventional diffraction limited technology. Many P&S have already gone over their limit in the Megapixels wars!

Large sensors cost more duh but here is where technology is not diffraction limited every year the cost to manufacture a sensor comes down in a few years FF sensors will be cheaper then crop sensors are today. Computers will be the same cost only twice as fast and twice as much memory and storage (including flash cards).

Their is no real cost difference between a ff and crop factor DSLR except for the sensor and more horsepower needed to crunch the extra Mpixels. This cost gap is rapidly closing.

Now lets look at a little history:

When Canon brought out the full frame 5D (mk I) Nikon responded in the only way they could respond at the time by saying there is no need for a full frame camera and they were not considering going to full frame. In other words they lied giving all of the same excuses that are offered by some of the pundits above.

When the DSLR grew a video compatible sensor maybe the same or different pundits were saying it was a gimmick, useless, people didn't need it, wouldn't use it... been around town lately!

First offering of a entry level full frame DSLR by Canon or Nikon will be the tolling of the death bell for crop factor in DSLR format. No hard feeling it's just consumer, marketing and technology evolution.

I put the couple of photos above because interest in larger then full frame seems to be of interest for the next frontier.

how do you explain the new nikon 1 series?

different market? to try to upsize the P&S market sensors?

I have no doubt that sensors are going to get progressively cheaper, but whether that means entry/mid range SLRs will go full frame, or sprout more features, is another question.

A few years back, nobody thought video on SLRs was possible, now it's odd not to have a video mode. Who knows what else can be done with crop sensors?

Mike you are asking the wrong questions were talking about conventional DSLRs, crop sensors will be used in mirrorless sensors but even there the trend is to larger sensors.

It's pretty easy to predict what will happen in 3 to 5 years just read the technical papers. Video was highly predictable as was full frame.

Don't kid yourself when your friends all have full frame entry level DSLR or better I'm sure you won't be buying a new crop factor DSLR, just like in the P&S Megapixel wars consumerism and human nature will win out. From P&S, pro-consumer and up to DSLR larger sensors will continue to be one of the key differentiating factors. High end will push boundaries to the 30 megapixel, lower noise, better focus, more video features ...

What isn't so predictable is which features will catch on. Except full frame is what 35mm slr cameras started out as and what they will end up being.

i'm still not sure.

As in, I'm sure that if a camera that combines 7D class AF and an FF sensor were to be sold for $1500, I'd buy it, of course, and so would everybody else.

I'd also agree with you that by that time, computer storage and processing will be so cheap that even if the cameras produce 60 MB raw files, nobody would baulk at the new workflow.

But I still think that for most purposes, crop SLRs are good enough, and 'progress' is never inevitable. Part of the reason why we don't have cars (say) engineered out of more titanium/carbon fibre parts, and have stupendous acceleration is not a technical/cost issue, it's that for most people, that is not needed.

I would not be betting on it though...

Speak for yourself we all need strong light weight composite cars they are the route to fuel efficientcy with good performance, but here cost is the main issue and also the fact with a titanium body it would last a life time. The material cost let alone the repair cost is exorbitant on a consumer level. If the price ever got low enough then you would see it on a ford focus.

They have been working on the idea since the 1990s and these days they are close.

http://green.autoblog.com/2011/03/10/te ... car-frame/

I never said crop factors bodies were not good enough for the majority of users but good enough is not what sells to the consumer.

I suggest we meet in a few years and the loser buys the beers or hands over his full frame camera to the winner.

Thank you for the insight Ryan ....

Methinks Metrix is correct. Bigger sensors are the future. But whether 5 years is the time frame whereby the crop sensor no longer exists is up for debate. Bigger is usually better in marketers' and consumers' eyes. It is cost that has kept sensor size in check, not any technical advantage to them being small. So once their cost decreases sensors will get bigger. There's little advantage to a smaller sensor other than cost.

When I look at your digital back medium frame shots I too see MY future - well the being bald part. But please tell me the future isn't blue beards.

It's not even the sensor cost. How long do you guys think it will be before decent lenses that cover 35mm sensors will become affordable?

Right now theres a full line of affordable (relatively) lenses that are made for crop sensors. I agree it's going that way, but I'm not sure if 5 years is reasonable. On the sensor side, probably, on the lens side, dunno. Either way, I hope it's at least 5-10 years before Nikon/Canon's pro DSLR's go medium format. I don't want to have to start lusting after all new lenses so soon haha. Hopefully they'll just focus on the ISO performance and dynamic range of existing 35mm sensors.

but at least for the canon side, the whole slew of EF lenses were designed for 35mm sized imaging circles to begin with. Lots of high quality L lenses for those with deep enough pockets.

Bart has a good point there, cost of glass is also a factor

In five years time not much will change .. there is will be more crop sensor cameras and still a handful of full frame sensors. But in 10-15 years time I'm sure this will be a mute point because by that time we will have circular, spherical or some other sensor technology that will make the current stuff obsolete.

Blue beards not my idea even with dye, unfortunately because of very limited time with the camera I wasn't able to change the lighting setup, I assume the lighting guy got the blue gel look out of some sort of strobist handbook.

6 generations too long, I'm willing to make you the same bet that I made mike

Oops, I meant moot point, not mute point .. and NO Ryan you can never have my camera!!

yeah. cold dead hands etc

or a few thousand dollars..